It denotes how specific the evidence we see is for aliens v no aliens. This needs to be multiplied by another factor, often called the Bayes factor. This is a statement of belief based on knowledge of the world (using for example the famous Drake equation). Some might say 50:50, making this factor one, while others may make it very low, like 10-23. It tells us how we should update our beliefs based on new evidence. The result will be one of the options are equally likely, and high if aliens are the stronger bet. The equation now shows how likely it is that UFOs are aliens compared to how likely it is that they are not – after looking at the footage. When we do this, we also get rid of that pesky factor of how probable the evidence is. That needs to be divided by how likely the actual evidence is, which is notoriously difficult to work out.īut what we are really interested in is if the evidence tells us we should believe in aliens compared to not believing in aliens. Spelled out, it says that the probability that UFOs are aliens given some evidence is equal to how likely it is that the evidence would appear if UFOs really were aliens, times how likely it is that there are aliens. The Bayes formula, a mainstay of statistics, gives the probability (Pr) of something, given some evidence. Why not angels?Īnyway, I like to do maths instead. And when you think about it, this is fairly odd. The problem is that people jump to the conclusion “unknown = aliens”. But for some sightings, there's no known explanation. The vast majority are aeroplanes, satellites, weather balloons, clouds, rocket launches, auroras, optical reflections and so on. People are constantly seeing things in the sky they don't understand. Still, I hear that a friend of a friend has gone from thinking there's a 1% chance that UFOs are aliens to now believing it is 50%. 15 spacewalk as part of efforts to upgrade the station’s solar power systems.Ĭygnus is scheduled to remain attached to the station until late January, when it will depart the station, loaded with trash, for a destructive reentry.The US military has released previously classified photos and films related to unidentified flying object (UFO) sightings, which mostly show something blurry moving strangely. That hardware includes a solar array bracket that astronauts Josh Cassada and Frank Rubio will install outside the station on a Nov. The company did not explain how the debris got into the mechanism, something the company has not reported happening on previous Cygnus launches.Ĭygnus delivered to the station nearly 3,750 kilograms of cargo, including crew supplies, scientific payloads and hardware. “During a rocket stage separation event, debris from an Antares acoustic blanket became lodged in one of the Cygnus solar array mechanisms, preventing it from opening,” said Cyrus Dhalla, vice president and general manager of tactical space systems at Northrop Grumman. 9, Northrop Grumman blamed the failed deployment of the array on debris from the launch. “The Cygnus team is gathering information on why the second array did not deploy as planned,” NASA stated. Video from the ISS showed that while one of the circular arrays, designed to unfold like a fan, deployed as expected, the other appeared to have unfolded only slightly. “Northrop Grumman and NASA made the determination not to deploy the second solar array after initial attempts to deploy it were unsuccessful,” the agency stated. 8 statement that it would proceed with having Cygnus approach the station.
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